Expansion dynamics of the alpine shrub Potentilla fruticosa

Analyzing the climatic niche characteristics and geographic distribution patterns of expanding shrub species can provide a reliable reference for the effective management and early prevention of shrub expansion in grasslands. Based on the distribution point data and environmental factors of Potentilla fruticosa, combined with niche analysis and species distribution models, this study analyzed the climatic niche characteristics, potential distribution patterns, and the main limiting factors of P. fruticosa in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that the climatic niche width of P. fruticosa was large and had a certain degree of expansion in low-altitude and low-latitude areas, that is, in areas with high Bio10 (mean temperature of the warmest quarter). In contrast, its climatic niche was small but highly expansive in high-altitude and high-latitude areas, that is, in areas with low Bio10. Isothermality and precipitation during the warmest quarter (June, July, and August) were the main climatic factors limiting the expansion of P. fruticosa. The eastern and southern parts of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were potential expansion areas for P. fruticosa and measures should be taken to prevent its rapid expansion.